PUBLISHED ON 15th April 2014 on
POST ELECTION SCENARIO- INDIAN ECONOMY AFTER ELECTION 2014
By: ANUPAM JAISWAL (CS)
A stable government can do wonder for the country after Election 2014, according to an opinion the expected growth rate may shoot up to 7 % or even go beyond this level why? What is the reason behind it? The prediction of a stable government leads us to this calculation, India inc needs a stable Government and for this time they looked ensured up to some extent that India will get a stable government after election 2014 where decision making process may be rational & faster than the earlier government.
According to Joseph Mark Mobius executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group Indian share market can give 15-20 per cent annualized returns over the next few years.
Actually India has been a best investment avenue and the stable government after election can make it more attractive investment avenue for investors.
The situation is not like this just two months back, when World Bank’s Chief Economist Kaushik Basu in an interview with BBC News India, who also acted as the former chief economic advisor to the Indian government, expected a slow growth in 2014 and pointed to poor governance as a contributing factor. “Decision-making is slow; the bureaucracy is extremely cumbersome,” Basu said in the interview. “But it’s difficult to change it as it has been the legacy of the last 60 years.”
Did he say? The legacy of last 60 years. Yes he pointed correctly
Naendra modi’s Gujrat model is going to be proved as an eclipse on the 60 years legacy of the current ruling party, day by day as the politicians are talking more about the Gujarat Model, the Gujarat’s Model gaining more popularity throughout the India and seems to be dominated on any other issue.
The expectation is this after winning the elections Modi can serve for the whole nation instead of only one state, actually the winds of development started flowing from Gujarat and spreading into the whole country, the bumper buying of FII in Indian market has some indication towards this, in its recent statement IMS said that economic development rate will improvise.
Opinion polls are improving the rating of BJP, they are suggesing that BJP may form the next Government and it is expected that the strong decision making will replace the slow decision making of the ruling Government in the Parliament.
Going with the latest opinion polls two scenarios emerges
1. Modi-led-BJP will win 210+ seats in this scenario BJP can form a stable government in this case investment will gain new high and growth rate will jump for while. This will impact the dollar rate it may come down to rs 57-58 in the 3to four year time span and sensex may go beyond 25000.
2. Modi-led-BJP will win less than 200 the Government may become a bargained government where the issues of local parties will set the economic agenda and this may led the Government towards subsidies & concessions.
POST ELECTION SCENARIO- INDIAN ECONOMY AFTER ELECTION 2014 page2
By: ANUPAM JAISWAL (CS)
Now Democracy requires the government to make this decision making system more strong & More transparent. Narendra Modi is reiterating that they will give good governance and they have mentioned the measures that they will take in their Election manifesto 2014.
So it seems that India this time is more assured about a stable Government which can make strong decisions & can lead India into the new phase of development as needed since a long time.